银行招聘考试

Positive surprises from government reports on retail sales, industrial production, and housing in the past few months are leading economists to revise their real gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts upward supporting the notion that the recession ended in December or January.

Bear in mind: This recovery won’t have the vitality normally associated with an upturn. Economists now expect real GDP growth of about 1.5 in the first quarter. That’s better than the 0.4 the consensus projected in December, but much of the additional growth will come from a slower pace of inventory drawdowns, not from surging demand.

Moreover, the economy won’t grow fast enough to help the labor markets much. The only good news there is that jobless claims have fallen back from their spike after September 11 and that their current level suggests the pace of layoffs is easing.

The recovery also does not mean the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon. The January price indexes show that inflation remains tame. Consequently, the Fed can take its time shifting monetary policy from extreme accommodation to relative neutrality.

Perhaps the best news from the latest economic reports was the January data on industrial production. Total output fell only 0.1, its best showing since July. Factory output was flat, also the best performance in six months. Those numbers may not sound encouraging, but manufacturers have been in recession since late 2000. The data suggest that the factory sector is finding a bottom from which to start its recovery.

Production of consumer goods, for instance, is almost back up to where it was a year ago. That’s because consumer demand for motor vehicles and other goods and the housing industry remained healthy during the recession, and they are still growing in early 2002.

Besides, both the monthly homebuilding starts number and the housing market index for the past two months are running above the averages for all of 2001, suggesting that home-building is off to a good start and probably won’t be big drag on GDP growth this year.

Equally important to the outlook is how the solid housing market will help demand for home-related goods and services. Traditionally, consumers buy the bulk of their furniture, electronics, and textiles within a year of purchasing their homes. Thus, spending on such items will do well this year, even as car sales slip now that incentives are less attractive. Look for the output of consumer goods to top year-ago level in coming months.

Even the business equipment sector seems to have bottomed out. Its output rose 0.4% in January, led by a 0.6% jump computer gear. A pickup in orders for capital goods in the fourth quarter suggests that production will keep increasing—although at a relaxed pace—in coming months.

1. American economists are surprised to see that______.

[A]they have to revise the GDP forecasts so often

[B]their government is announcing the end of a recession

[C]US economy is showing some signs of an upturn

[D]GDP growth reflects stronger domestic demand

2. The most encouraging fact about the US economy is that_____ .

[A]employment rates have risen faster than expected

[B]the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon

[C]industrial production is reaching its lowest point

[D]some economic sectors have become leading industries

3. Of which of the following did the author provide a guardedly optimistic view?

[A]GDP growth. [B]The number of layoffs.

[C]Price indexes. [D]Output of consumer goods.

4. Which of the following is the guarantee of a better future for US economy?

[A]Motor vehicles. [B]Housing market.

[C]Business equipment. [D]Computer gear.

5. Which of the following best summarizes the U. S. economic situation today?

[A]American economists are painting a gloomy picture.

[B]It is slowly warming up with moderate growth.

[C]Recession may come back anytime in the coming months.

[D]Most sectors are picking up at a surprisingly fast pace.

参考答案

1.C 2.C 3.A 4.B 5.B

1.【金考网银行招聘答案解析】这是一道涉及对第一、二段理解的事实细节题。第一段是一句话段落，其主干结构是positive surprises…lead economists to… supporting the notion that…。该段提到政府报告带来的意外惊喜使经济学家将对国民生产总值的预测上调，从而支持了经济衰退期已在12月或1月终止的观点。由一段中的“意外惊喜”和“经济学家上调国民生产总值预测的举措”可知让他们吃惊的是经济状况好转的迹象，即[C]项为正确答案。

第一、二段只提到经济学家对GDP预期的一次调整，无法推出他们频繁地修改。排除[A]项。由第一段可知，政府只报导了各个领域经济发展的好势头，而未宣布经济衰退期的终止。排除[B]项。第二段末句but转折后提到，但是(GDP)增长部分主要是因为存货提用的速度减缓，而不是需求的增长(surging demand)，由此排除[D]项。

2.【金考网银行招聘答案解析】本题考查了多处事实细节。第三段第二句提到，惟一的好消息是申请失业保险金人数在9?11事件后达到的高峰期开始回落，现在的水平表明失业的速度(the pace of layoffs)有所缓和(easing)。该句表明失业者还在增加，只是增加的速度低于先前。因此，[A]项与文意相反。[B]项与第四段首句“经济复苏并不意味着美联储将很快提高利率”含义相反。第五段首句是段落主题句：最近的经济报道中最好的消息来自1月份工业生产的数据。末句对主题予以说明：数据表明工业生产部门的产量正在达到底线，复苏即将开始。[C]项是对该句的改写，是正确选项。文中虽然提到很多经济部门，但没有比较谁是主导产业，排除[D]项。

3.【金考网银行招聘答案解析】本题实际考查了多处事实细节。第二段提到，GDP虽然有所增长，但其增长大多因为存货提用的速度减缓，而不是需求的增长。而且该段首句也提到：这次经济复苏不具有通常经济好转所具有的活力。因此作者对GDP的增长是持保守态度的。

[B]项在第三段提到，即申请失业保险金人数的下降表明失业的速度有所缓和。[C]项在第四段第二句中出现，即1月的价格指数表明通货膨胀仍然很缓和(remained tame)。[D]项在第六段至第九段都有所涉及。因此作者对这三个方面抱有的是很明确的乐观态度。

4.【金考网银行招聘答案解析】本题考查了第六段至第九段的事实细节。这四个段落提到了备选项中四个经济生产部门。第六段提到，消费品的生产几乎回到了一年前的水平，因为对汽车及其他物品的消费需求以及房屋产业在经济衰退期间都保持了健康发展。第七段提到，过去两个月的月住宅建筑和房产市场相关数据都在整个2001年的平均数以上。这表明住宅建筑有了好的开始，可能不会成为今年GDP增长的累赘。第八段提到，稳固的房产市场可以刺激对房屋相关物品和服务的需求，如家具、电子产品和纺织品。期望消费商品的产量在未来的月份里超越年前的水平。第九段提到，甚至办公设备部门的生产似乎都要降至最低点。它的产量因电脑设备0.6%的涨幅在1月上升了0.4%。

概括而言，汽车是消费者需求的对象，办公设备和电脑设备的产量只是小幅度的增长，只有房产市场不仅呈现良好发展势头，而且还带动其他生产领域的发展。因此[B]项正确。

5.【金考网银行招聘答案解析】这是一道涉及对全文主旨理解的考题。综合全文，作者对美国经济进行了客观、全面的分析。从第二至四段的内容可知，作者对GDP的增长原因、经济对劳动市场的影响、美联储提高利率的措施都持有谨慎的乐观态度。但是作者也指出失业的速度有所缓和(三段末)，美联储的货币政策相对中性化(四段末)，工业生产部门的产量正在达到底线，复苏即将开始(第五段)，办公设备部门将以比较缓和的速度继续增长(第九段末)。因此[B]项恰当地概括了美国的经济形势。

文章开篇就提到，政府报告带来的意外惊喜使经济学家对国民生产总值的预测上调。排除[A]项。首段提到，有观点认为经济衰退期已在12月或1月终止。但下文只描述了经济的复苏趋势，因此[C]项不符合。[D]项错在surprisingly fast pace，文中大量出现表示“适中、温和”含义的关键词，如tame，neutrality，relaxed pace等，表明经济的发展速度是缓慢的。

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